5 Steps to Inventory Optimization – Step 4 – Calculate your product Forecast
Feb 6, 2010 Inventory Management software
The calculation of the prognosis of the product is the most critical part of optimizing inventory. They are mistaken, and that is excessive or understock, which can be very damaging for business. The forecast is the basis for establishing the warehouse stock levels. The forecasts have to be as accurate as possible, so software is required to react immediately when changes in trends or seasonality.
There are two main policies estimate – statistical and demand – and both are important for different reasons. Statistical forecasting analyzes the long-term, and is controlled by the rules and methods. This means it has the great advantage of being more or less automatically calculated. Demand planning is influenced by short term changes in the market and capacity. It is more manual and reflects many influences, including marketing activities, the demand for new products, new markets and so on.
A statistical forecast system for repeating the demand patterns that occur at the same time every year. Therefore, you'll need at least a 12-month history of application to conduct the statistical prediction and identification of trends and profiles of season. It is important to focus on the history of the delivery order and not history, as both can be very different. With this information, statistical forecasting can identify trends and foreseeable demand, as if the demand for a specific product is going up or down over a long period of time.
While estimates of statistical prediction can be done automatically, can be less accurate if there are zeros in the history of the claim or if the history of the demand is very irregular. For example, the forecast does not take into account statistical fluctuations caused by specific sales and marketing activities, which are key factors in the numbers of demand planning.
Demand planning is preferred for short-term forecasts. Demand is when a customer buys their products and services, and is its sales and marketing, usually done to do this. Sales and marketing activities, the numbers forecast or demand plan, not vice versa. So you have to ensure that information on the budgets of sales, promotions and campaigns are included in their calculations. This method should also take into account capacity constraints and any potential shortages. This means you can buy or produce certain parts and put them into action before orders so you can deliver the final product during the peak season high.
Get your forecast right, and you never will be plus or understocked, their customer service levels will rise, and warehouse efficiency will be optimized.
Of course, while forecasts are of vital importance, which has yet to put products on the shelf. That means there is a step to the left in its program of inventory optimization and replenishment is – making their relationships with suppliers to implement the best possible way.
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